#GOLD Short-Term Bearish Outlook Amid Bullish Intraday Trend Banked + 142 & + 394 pips today
- Chris Trader
- 4 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Short-Term Bearish Outlook Amid Bullish Intraday Trend
Based on the chart you shared (XAU/USD, 5-minute timeframe), the market structure currently looks bearish in the short term, although the broader intraday trend remains bullish because of the strong impulse move from the 3975 area.
What I see
1. Strong rejection from supply
Price rallied aggressively from around 3975–3980 to 4040+.
It then tested the 4044–4045 supply/resistance zone multiple times.
Each test was rejected, creating wicks and showing seller presence.
The area marked "Sell Power: 71" aligns with this rejection.
Interpretation: Buyers are struggling to break above 4045.
2. Potential lower high formation
After the first rejection, price retraced.
The next push higher failed to make a convincing breakout above resistance.
The latest candle cluster suggests momentum is weakening near the highs.
Interpretation: This is often an early sign of distribution before a deeper pullback.
3. Key support / demand zones
Nearest demand
4029–4031
Price is currently interacting with this area.
Major demand
4008–4012
Strong reaction zone from previous structure.
Deep demand
3974–3978
Origin of the strong bullish impulse.
Bearish Scenario (higher probability currently)
If price stays below 4044–4045:
Retest of 4030 demand.
Break below 4029 could trigger a move toward:
4012–4008
If selling accelerates:
3980–3975 becomes the major downside target.
This matches the black projected path drawn on your chart.
Bullish Invalidation
Bears lose control if:
Price closes strongly above 4045.
Then holds above that level on a retest.
In that case, the market could target:
4055
4065
Potentially the recent highs around 4070+
Market Structure Summary
Factor | Bias |
Higher-timeframe impulse | Bullish |
Current resistance reaction | Bearish |
Momentum near highs | Weakening |
Supply zone (4044-4045) | Strong |
Demand zone (4029-4031) | Critical |
Overall short-term bias | Bearish to 4008 first |
Trade Idea From This Chart
A conservative trader would typically wait for:
A confirmed break below 4029–4031, or
Another rejection candle from 4044–4045,
before looking for shorts.
The most important level on this chart is 4045. As long as gold remains below it, sellers have the advantage. A clean breakout above it would invalidate the bearish setup and shift momentum back to the buyers.
Questions?
Chris Head Coach & Trader for over 35 years
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