Analysing the Bearish Trend in the 15-Minute #XAU/USD Chart

Chris Trader
Jun 23
3 min read

Analysing the Bearish Trend in the 15-Minute XAU/USD Chart

This is a 15-minute XAU/USD chart and the structure is much cleaner than the previous 10 minute chart. The market is currently in a bearish trend, and your marked SELLING AREA aligns well with institutional supply and trend continuation logic.

1. Higher Timeframe Bias: Bearish

The first thing that stands out:

Bearish Market Structure

Price has:

Broken below the blue long-term MA.
Printed lower highs.
Printed lower lows.
Stayed below the EMA cluster.

This means:

Trend = Down

As long as price remains below the EMA ribbon and major supply zones, sellers have control.

2. Golden Zone Analysis

There are actually two Golden Zones on this chart.

Major Golden Zone (Top)

4210 – 4219

The upper yellow zone near the "Down" label.

This is the strongest institutional supply area.

Why?

Origin of previous selloff.
Liquidity resting above highs.
Untested supply.

If price somehow rallies here:

Expect:

Profit-taking.
Aggressive selling.
Potential reversal.

This zone is currently far away and represents the "macro bearish invalidation zone."

Active Golden Zone (Current)

4193 – 4198

The yellow rectangle above current price.

This is the zone that matters now.

Notice:

Previous support.
Became resistance.
Multiple rejections.

Price keeps attempting to enter this zone but gets rejected.

That is classic:

Support → Resistance Flip

3. Selling Area

Your marked SELLING AREA is actually very well positioned.

Why It Works

Price rallied from:

4090 demand

↓

towards

4147–4150 resistance

↓

stalled under EMA ribbon

↓

began consolidating

This creates:

Lower High Formation

Previous swing high:≈ 4150

Current attempts:≈ 4145-4147

Unable to break.

That's bearish.

4. EMA Ribbon Analysis

The orange moving averages tell the story.

What We See

All EMAs stacked downward.
Fast EMA below slow EMA.
Ribbon acting as resistance.

Price repeatedly touches the ribbon and gets rejected.

Institutional traders love these setups because:

They don't sell the lows.

They wait for:

Pullback → Resistance → Sell

That's exactly what's happening.

5. Supply Zone Rejection

The SELLING AREA coincides with:

Confluence

✔ EMA ribbon

✔ Previous structure

✔ Supply zone

✔ Lower high

✔ Trend direction

When several factors overlap, probability increases.

6. Demand Zone Below

The blue-green area around:

4090 – 4100

is the nearest significant demand.

This is where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.

Notice:

Strong bounce originated there.
Liquidity was swept.
Smart money accumulated.

Therefore it becomes the natural magnet for price.

7. Trade Projection

The yellow arrow on the chart is logical.

Scenario

Current price:≈ 4130

Resistance:≈ 4147

Target:≈ 4090

Potential move:

4130 → 4090

≈ 40 dollars in gold

This fits the existing bearish structure.

8. Risk-Reward

Your trade box shows:

Risk:≈ $11.4k

Reward:≈ $11.8k

Approximately:

1:1 RR

The direction is correct, but from a professional trading perspective I'd prefer:

Entry closer to 4140-4147 supply.
Stop above 4156.
Target 4090.

That would improve the RR to roughly:

1:2 or better.

9. What Would Invalidate the Short?

Bears lose control if price:

First Warning

Breaks 4147 decisively.

Strong Warning

Closes above 4156.

Full Invalidation

Reclaims 4193-4198 supply.

If that happens, the market may begin a larger corrective rally.

10. Probability Assessment

Based solely on this chart:

Scenario	Probability
Drop to 4090 demand	High
Continue ranging 4120-4147	Medium
Break above 4147	Medium-Low
Rally to 4193 supply	Low

Summary

The chart remains bearish overall. The key active Golden Zone is 4193–4198, while the immediate selling area around 4140–4147 is functioning as a lower-high supply retest beneath a bearish EMA ribbon. As long as price stays below 4147–4156, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the 4090–4100 demand zone, which is the most likely next liquidity target. The trade idea drawn on the chart is aligned with the prevailing trend and institutional market structure.