#GOLD profits over 500 pips! But has Bearish Market Trends with Potential Short-Term Rebound

A very nice move this morning, we banked over 200 pips on the correction, then there are 2 trading opportunities for another + 300 pips, well done VIP MEMBERS'

Overall Market Structure

• Primary trend remains bearish.

• Price has been making a sequence of lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel.

• Multiple moving averages/ribbons are stacked bearishly and sloping downward.

• The recent green candle is a counter-trend bounce, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

What Happened Recently

• Gold sold off aggressively into the green demand/support zone around 4,135–4,145.

• Several bullish divergence markers ("Bull Div") appear on the chart, suggesting:

  • Momentum was weakening while price was still making lower lows.

  • Sellers may be becoming exhausted.

• The stochastic oscillator at the bottom has turned sharply upward from oversold territory, supporting a short-term rebound.

Key Resistance Levels

Looking at the right side of the chart:

1. 4,166–4,170

   • Current resistance and first test area.

   • Price is trading around this level now.

2. 4,180–4,190

   • Confluence of moving averages and channel resistance.

   • Stronger barrier.

3. 4,218–4,248

   • Major supply zone (highlighted yellow).

   • A rally into this area would likely attract sellers unless momentum becomes very strong.

Key Support Levels

1. 4,140–4,145

   • Immediate support.

   • Recent reaction low.

2. 4,130 area

   • Lower channel support.

   • If broken, bears regain full control.

Trade Bias

Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability Short-Term)

The chart appears to be attempting a relief rally.

For bulls:

• Hold above 4,145.

• Break and close above 4,170.

• Target:

  • 4,180–4,190 first.

  • Then 4,205–4,220.

The green projection box on your chart suggests a move toward roughly 4,174.

Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability Medium-Term)

The dominant trend is still down.

Watch for:

• Rejection at 4,170–4,190.

• Bearish candles near channel resistance.

• Momentum oscillator rolling over before reaching overbought.

If that happens:

• Price could retest 4,145.

• Then potentially make new session lows.

What I'd Need to See for a Trend Reversal

A true bullish reversal would require:

1. Break above the descending channel.

2. Close above the EMA/ribbon cluster.

3. Higher high above the recent swing near 4,220.

4. Retest holding as support.

None of those conditions have occurred yet.

Current Read

• Short-term: Bullish rebound underway.

• Intraday: Neutral-to-bullish while above 4,145.

• Higher timeframe structure: Still bearish until 4,190–4,220 is reclaimed.

The highest-probability interpretation right now is a relief rally inside a larger downtrend, rather than the start of a new bullish trend.

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