#EURNZD | 68% Probability of Trend Continuation After Reversal!!
- Chris Trader
- Jun 7
- 2 min read
Market Structure
The broader trend remains bearish despite the recent sharp rally from the demand zone around 1.94–1.95.
Key observations:
Price formed a strong impulsive move upward from demand.
The rally appears corrective within a larger downtrend.
Price is currently approaching a significant daily supply/resistance zone around 1.9850–1.9950.
The long-term descending trendline remains intact.
The chart suggests a classic pullback into higher-timeframe supply rather than a confirmed bullish trend reversal.
Resistance Zone (Major Sell Area)
The highlighted supply zone near:
1.9850 – 1.9950
contains:
Previous swing highs
Historical rejection area
Daily supply
Trendline confluence
This creates a high-probability reaction zone.
Price is already showing hesitation around this area.
Bullish Case (Continuation Higher)
For bulls to remain in control:
Daily close above 1.99
Acceptance above the supply zone
Break of the descending trendline
Higher highs and higher lows maintained
If this occurs, the next upside targets become:
2.0000 psychological level
2.0100
2.0200
Probability appears lower unless buyers can decisively break the current resistance.
Bearish Case (Higher Probability)
The chart appears to favor the bearish scenario because:
1. Supply Zone Rejection
Price is entering a major institutional sell zone.
2. Trendline Resistance
The larger descending trendline remains respected.
3. Corrective Rally Structure
The move from 1.94 looks more like a retracement than a trend reversal.
4. Previous Swing High Liquidity
Price may be sweeping liquidity above recent highs before reversing.
Potential Bearish Targets
Target 1
1.9720 – 1.9750
Recent support area.
Target 2
1.9600 – 1.9650
Trendline intersection and prior structure.
Target 3
1.9450 – 1.9500
Major demand zone shown on chart.
This aligns closely with the projected path drawn on your analysis.
Moving Average Analysis
The moving averages appear to be:
Bullishly aligned in the short term.
Flattening near resistance.
Still vulnerable to a bearish crossover if price rejects here.
This supports the idea that momentum is improving but has not yet changed the higher-timeframe trend.
QuantFlow / Power Readings
Visible readings:
Sell Power: 68
Buy Power: 82
Interpretation:
Buyers currently have stronger momentum.
However, momentum alone doesn't invalidate a higher-timeframe supply zone.
Strong buying pressure often attracts profit-taking when major resistance is reached.
A common outcome is:
Strong buying into resistance → exhaustion → reversal back into trend.
Trade Bias
Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral
I would rank probabilities approximately:
65–70% chance of rejection from supply and continuation lower.
30–35% chance of a clean breakout above 1.99 and trend reversal.
A suitable headline for this setup could be:
#EURNZD | 68% Probability of Bearish Continuation from Daily Supply Zone
or
#EURNZD | Rally Meets Major Resistance — 68% Probability of Trend Continuation Lower
The key confirmation signal now is whether price can achieve a daily close above the supply zone (≈1.99).
Chris
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