The #USDCHF sellers remain in control from longer and shorter term perspective. Here's why.

Jul 18, 20231 min read

The USDCHF sellers remain in control from a longer and shorter-term perspective.

Analyzing the weekly chart, it is evident that the USDCHF currency pair experienced a significant breakdown last week, breaching its 2021 low-level at 0.87568. Remarkably, the price has remained persistently below this crucial level since the break. This decline in value marks the USDCHF's lowest point since 2015.

Upon closer examination of the weekly chart, we observe another significant resistance level coming into play near 0.86959, which corresponds to the lows recorded in 2014. For a more positive outlook in the long term, buyers would need to drive the price above the range between 0.86959 and 0.87568. Without such a breakthrough, the sellers will maintain their strong grip on the market.

Zooming in on the hourly chart, a critical event occurred on July 6 when the USDCHF price dropped below its 100-hour moving average. Subsequently, on July 7, the price attempted a retest of this moving average but failed, resuming its downward trend.

This downtrend pushed the USDCHF price from 0.8970 to its current low of 0.85542. Throughout this decline, the price has consistently remained below the falling 100-hour moving average (identified by the blue line on the chart) which is currently positioned at 0.86119.

For short-term buyers to regain some confidence, a move above this 100-hour moving average level is imperative. Failing to breach it means the buyers are not yet gaining an advantage. Furthermore, additional targets for the buyers to conquer would be the 0.8630 highs from both Friday and yesterday, as breaking above these levels would demonstrate more control and victories for the buyers against the sellers.