On the daily chart, GBPJPY appears to be rebounding from the support-turned-resistance level at 188.67. Sellers currently maintain control, with market participants positioning themselves in anticipation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) exiting its negative interest rate policy. Additionally, it's notable that the recent uptrend diverged with the MACD indicator, indicating a potential weakening momentum that often precedes pullbacks or reversals.
In this scenario, the target is likely the base of the divergent formation, located around the 185.21 level. It's anticipated that sellers will emerge around the red 21-day moving average.
On the 4-hour chart, GBPJPY is nearing a significant swing high level, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the daily 21-period moving average, offering a confluence of resistance. This convergence suggests that sellers may become more assertive in this area, particularly with a clear risk defined above the swing high, positioning themselves for a potential decline towards new lows.
Conversely, buyers will be watching for a breakout above this resistance zone to negate the bearish setup and bolster bullish sentiment, potentially paving the way for new highs.
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