Fundamental Overview
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) finally initiated its easing cycle by implementing a 50 basis points (bps) cut in interest rates. This move had been anticipated by the market, which had already been leaning towards a 50 bps adjustment, making the decision less of a surprise. The larger cut was positioned as somewhat of an "insurance" measure, as indicated by the dot plot projection revealing the possibility of two additional 25 bps cuts by the end of the year, a figure lower than what the market had initially anticipated for 2025.
Despite the rise in Treasury yields following the Fed's decision, the US Dollar did not experience a significant boost. With the decision now in the past, attention is expected to shift towards analysing economic data. Should there be signs of improvement, Treasury yields are likely to continue increasing, potentially leading to a revaluation of dovish expectations and providing short-term support for the greenback.
In contrast, if economic data begins to weaken, the market may start anticipating further 50 bps cuts by the end of the year, which could exert downward pressure on the US Dollar. Shifting focus to the British Pound (GBP), the Bank of England (BoE) opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels and struck a more hawkish tone than anticipated. This unexpected stance has resulted in the market now pricing in just 39 bps of easing by the end of the year, signalling a more optimistic outlook for the GBP.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD managed to rally to a new high following the Fed’s and BoE’s decisions. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.30 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely wait for the price to fall below the previous high level at 1.3265 to start piling in for a correction lower.
Chris
Comments