The AUDUSD is experiencing a decline today, which was partly influenced by the release of lower-than-expected CPI data from Australia last night. As a result, the currency pair dropped to a low of 0.67287. Notably, this low stopped just short of the rising 200-day moving average, which is currently at 0.67222 (indicated by the lower green line in the chart).
Looking back to Monday's trading activity, we observed a similar occurrence where the price briefly dipped below the 200-day moving average but swiftly reversed back up. Furthermore, in the last three trading days, each time the price moved lower, it found early buyers stepping in to support it near the rising 200-day moving average.
This suggests that the 200-day moving average is acting as a significant support level for the AUDUSD pair. Traders and investors have shown consistent interest in buying the currency pair whenever it approaches or slightly dips below the moving average, indicating confidence in its potential to rebound.
Currently trading at 0.6746, the price is below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which confirms the downside bias. To change this bearish bias, two important conditions need to be met during the FOMC rate decision:
The price should move above the 100-hour moving average at 0.67579.
The price must also surpass the falling 200-hour moving average, which is currently at 0.67855.
Achieving both of these would indicate an increase in buyer's control and shift the bias more in favor of the buyers.
As of now, sellers have the advantage since the price remains below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. On the downside, further bearish momentum would require breaking below the rising 200-day moving average at 0.67222 and the low from Monday at 0.67143. A move below these levels would intensify the bearish bias, and traders would start looking toward the 100-day moving average at 0.6690 as the next potential target.
Ultimately, breaching these longer-term moving average levels would not only firmly shift the bias in favor of sellers but also amplify the bearish sentiment from a longer-term perspective.